While there are still some differences amongst the models, they are coming into better agreement on the evolution of the next trough. Chances for thunderstorms will begin to increase on Sunday, especially across the northern half or so of the state. Some of these could be severe with the main threat being hail, but the bigger severe weather threat looks to hold off until Monday.
The precise evolution of the system will be critical in determining the magnitude of the threat. Regardless, model instability forecasts continue to look impressive by early April standards with good low-level moisture under an EML plume/steep lapse rates aloft. It's still too early to get very specific but a multi-modal severe weather event is looking increasingly likely for a good chunk of the state, with hail, damaging winds and tornadoes all possible.
More on this in the coming days...
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