The new models are in and they continue to indicate the cold front clearing much of the state by early Monday afternoon. Latest thinking is that a significant severe weather event will initiate to our west on Sunday evening with this activity crossing the state in the morning and afternoon hours.
Here are a couple of tornado potential maps from the NAM and SREF valid Sunday evening:
Notice the values are highest in Illinois, suggesting that is where the greatest tornado potential resides. By the time the storms reach us, the most favorable shear for tornadoes will have departed. However, wind fields aloft will still be quite strong. Thus, I expect our main severe threat to be damaging winds with hail a possibility in any stronger cells. An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially in the northwest portion of the state.
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